
On January 30, readers of
The New York Times'
website might have noticed something intriguing in
its "City Room" section. Nestled between outtakes
from a night with young Republicans in Staten Island
and part four of a five-part series on
tenant-landlord issues was the headline: "On
Michelle Obama's Guest List: Alma Rangel. What
followed was a report on how the wife of House Ways
and Means Committee Chairman Charlie Rangel, the
legendary Harlem representative, had dropped by an
Obama fund-raiser on the Upper East Side.
What
made the item so curious is that Rangel is a
longtime Hillary Clinton supporter. He's credited
with the inspiration for her maiden Senate bid in
2000; the next year, he played a pivotal role in
bringing Bill Clinton's post- presidential office to
125th Street, Rangel's backyard. That such an inner
member of Rangel's inner circle would be caught
nibbling bruschetta behind enemy lines seemed like a
major breach of protocol.
Or was it? A few days later, Alma Rangel came out
from the shadows and officially endorsed Obama.
Atmospherics being what they are in politics, it's
hard to believe she would have taken that step
without at least a tacit green light from her
husband. Less hard to believe is that Rangel would
have given it. With African Americans now
overwhelmingly embracing Barack Obama--something
that remained in doubt as recently as two months
ago--these can be lonely times for the black elected
officials who've endorsed his chief rival.
It was, of course, the night of the South
Carolina primary when it first became obvious that
African American voters had parted company with many
black leaders on the matter of presidential
preferences. As the exit polls gushed in showing
Obama winning roughly 80 percent of the black vote,
Hillary endorsers like Sheila Jackson Lee, an
African American representative from Texas, suddenly
found themselves waging a rearguard p.r. battle. "In
South Carolina, you saw a convergence of pride and
respect on the outstanding candidates that they had,
and certainly in Senator Obama," was all the
grim-faced Jackson Lee could muster. "There's
nothing wrong with that. People choose who they want
to choose."
In retrospect, the South Carolina results exposed
a divide in the way the campaigns courted African
American pols. The Clintons had largely operated
from a top-down model--relying on personal
relationships and the self-interest of black
politicians and hoping their constituents would
follow suit. In one now- famous episode, they went
so far as to give State Senator Darrell Jackson, a
prominent pastor, a consulting contract. By
contrast, the Obama campaign generally observed a
"no walking-around money" policy. It made the case
to African American politicians by pointing to its
grassroots strength (though it didn't hurt that
Obama's PAC handed out nearly $200,000 to candidates
and political groups in early primary states last
year). "After we won Iowa, I went to a lot of
leaders and said, 'You better get on the train
before it comes rolling through here,'" recalls
Anton Gunn, Obama's South Carolina political
director. "Some laughed it off; others recognized
this was for real."
Often the divide was generational. With some
notable exceptions, the profile of the typical
African American Clinton endorser was someone who'd
supported Bill Clinton and had enjoyed some amount
of White House largesse in return. (As president,
Clinton had headlined multiple fund-raisers for
Jackson Lee, for example.) For his part, Obama
tended to clean up among those who had entered
elective office during the post-Clinton era.
Freshman Georgia Representative Hank Johnson told me
he got a call from Obama before he was even sworn in
last January. He was spoken for by the time a
Clinton operative sidled up to him in the spring.
Whatever the nature of the split, it wasn't hard
to see the problem for the Clinton supporters in the
aftermath of South Carolina. "For individuals who
endorsed Senator Clinton, [the risk was always that]
Obama would prove to be enormously popular in the
black community; he'd win the lion's share of your
district," says Alabama Representative Artur Davis,
who endorsed Obama last February. "You'd find
yourself at odds with your constituents, and an
opponent could use that against you.
It's still hard to imagine that people
like Rangel--icons who've been reelected with little
or no opposition in their districts for
decades--will face much of a challenge. (Hillary
actually carried Rangel's district Tuesday night,
thanks in part to the large Hispanic vote there.)
For others, the problems may just be beginning.
According to Jamal Simmons, a political consultant
who works in heavily African American areas, the
effect the Obama campaign is having on black
communities could be similar to the effect the Dean
campaign had in upscale liberal enclaves in 2004: In
many of these places, turnout has suddenly doubled,
giving a local representative tens of thousands of
new voting constituents to worry about--many of whom
cast their first votes for Barack Obama.
The new, Obama-supporting demographic is much
younger and more male than the existing black
electorate, says Obama pollster Cornell Belcher.
They're unlikely to respond well when cautioned
against "leapfrogging"--a term the machine pols use
to stress the importance of paying one's dues (and
which Hillary invoked during a recent appearance
with Rangel). And they could easily form a base for
future campaigns across the country.
There is historical precedent for such
mobilization in the black community. After Jesse
Jackson ran for president in 1984 and '88, many of
the activists and voters he attracted stuck around
to help elect a generation of black
politicians--most prominent among them David
Dinkins, who won his race for mayor of New York in
1989. "If not for Jesse Jackson and the kind of
electoral coalition he was able to put together,
Dinkins would not have been possible," says
Wellesley political scientist Wilbur Rich, an expert
on urban politics. "Dinkins had no base outside of
Manhattan."
And Obama isn't just bringing new voters into the
process. He's bringing new donors, too. As Simmons
puts it: "You've got a group of lawyers or business
people who just finished raising $300,000 for Barack
Obama. They're saying to themselves, 'It costs a
million to run for Congress. ... We're a third of
the way there.'" This is never the kind of
calculation an incumbent wants to encourage.
A savvy politician will stay abreast of these
developments and pivot to accommodate them. "I do
have a network of people that are not limited to my
district that I communicate with all the time," says
South Carolina's Jim Clyburn, the House's
third-ranking Democrat. A week out from primary day,
Clyburn was detecting all manner of frustration with
the Clintons' polarizing tactics. Only a
longstanding promise to the state party, and the
urging of his wife and daughter, kept him on the
sidelines. But, once the votes were counted, he
immediately turned his attention to his new pro-Obama
constituency. "Sunday afternoon, I went into the
Democratic Party headquarters," he says. "They
showed me how many people voted in the sixth
congressional district. I got a printout. Every one
of those people will hear from me in one way or
another between now and the election."
Those of Clyburn's colleagues who endorsed
Hillary should plan on doing the same. Greg Moore is
the executive director of the NAACP Voter Fund and a
friend of Cleveland Representative Stephanie Tubbs
Jones, another Clinton supporter. He attributes
Tubbs Jones's endorsement to her work with Hillary
on an election- reform bill after the problems in
Ohio in 2004, and he admires her loyalty. But he
suspects there will be fallout. "Her district is
fifty-five percent African American," Moore told me.
"People say, 'Why isn't she supporting Barack Obama?'
It does make her life less pleasant than it would be
if she were endorsing an African American." The
post-South Carolina anti-Clinton backlash did little
to help her situation.
Tubbs Jones will probably weather the rough
patch. "I haven't felt any unpleasantness; that's
not to say I may not in the future," she says,
stressing that her relationship with the Clintons
goes back years and that she felt Hillary was the
most qualified candidate. But, according to an
Atlanta-based political strategist who works in the
African American community, Representative David
Scott could face more serious problems in Georgia,
where Obama won nearly 90 percent of the black vote.
"There are definitely rumblings among young people,"
says the strategist. "[The Hillary endorsement] was
a lot riskier for Congressman Scott." Complicating
the situation is the fact that there are now at
least three formidable African American politicians
raising money for what's expected to be an intensely
competitive Atlanta mayor's race in 2009. At least
two of those candidates will lose, leaving them with
an organization, a fund-raising network, and an itch
for higher office. It wouldn't be shocking if one of
them challenged Scott.
Meanwhile, in Detroit last month, Clinton lost
overwhelmingly to "uncommitted"--the box many local
pro-Obama groups had encouraged their members to
check because Obama himself was not contesting
Michigan. When I asked Judiciary Committee Chairman
John Conyers, a long-serving Detroit representative,
whether he would have been in trouble had he
endorsed Clinton rather than Obama, he told me, "I
think it would have created tension. I don't think
it would have been a serious problem ... but it only
takes one person to announce in your district that
they're running against you." That may be one reason
why Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, another Detroit-area
representative, kept her presumed support for
Hillary quiet in the weeks leading up to the
primary. (Kilpatrick never endorsed but took heat
from her colleagues in the Congressional Black
Caucus last September after featuring Hillary at a
town hall-style forum during the CBC's annual
conference.)
Still, one of the things you hear most
often from Obama endorsers like Conyers has less to
do with avoiding a challenger than avoiding social
embarrassment in the years to come. "To me, there's
a historical consideration in this as well," Conyers
says. "How in the world could I explain to people I
fought for civil rights and equality, then we come
to the point where an African American of
unquestioned capability has a chance to become
president and I said, 'No, I have dear old friends
I've always supported, who I've always liked.' What
do you tell your kids?" Charlie and Alma Rangel may
have wondered the same thing.
Noam Scheiber is a senior editor at The
New Republic.